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by A.K. Gunapala

"The post-colonial project of sustaining a paddy producing peasantry is not working", says Sunil Bastian in an article published in Daily News of 15 May 2002. In support of his proposition he submits several facts and figures. Two of these are:

1. 90 per cent of the households in the wet zone and 56 per cent of the households in the dry zone were engaged in non-agricultural activities (A World Bank report published in 1996, which covered a sample that included wet zone and dry zone villages).

2. Persons whose main occupation is agriculture spent on average one-third of their time on non-agricultural occupations, and derived 40 per cent of their income from non-agricultural work. For some this has been high as 80 per cent of their income (Labour Force Survey for 1993).

One may perhaps attribute this phenomenon to the exodus of people in large numbers for employment in the Middle East and recruitments to the army. These may have accelerated the process but it is more reasonable to assume that this is a part of the normal transition from an economy based on peasant agriculture, a process that has been observed in other parts of the world. Mr. Sunil Bastian says that this transition is usually accompanied by violence. Perhaps, the unusual opportunities for employment in the Middle East and the army have cushioned the shock of the transition or it may even be that we have already witnessed the violence generated by the transition in the form of the JVP uprising even though we may not be correctly reading its meaning.

Vision - 2025

More evidence on the same or a similar social transition has been collected by an independent group named Lanka Jalani that has been formulating a vision on the future state of water resources in Sri Lanka. The evidence they have collected, partly published in 1999 in a document titled "Water Vision - 2025 - Sri Lanka", surfaces the following trends:

Out of a total of 560,000 ha of irrigated land in Sri Lanka, 250,000 ha of high potential land, produce 54% of the rice production in the country. These lands have the potential to produce 70% of the rice production in the short run, and in the long run, the entire rice requirement of the country may be produced in this land. "Can this be achieved" they ask "and leave the balance irrigated land to other high value crops or livestock?" Part of this balance land may even be used for forestry.

Only the 250,000 ha of high potential land can provide 240 days of work for a year or full employment. The other irrigated land cannot provide water required for full employment. It is only natural therefore for those not fully employed to find employment elsewhere. Is it reasonable to expect the sector that is not capable of providing full employment to continue in agriculture without supplementary employment or moving out to other sectors for employment? If so, it can only be achieved at a heavy cost of expansion in irrigation facilities and subsidies unlikely to be sustained in the context of a globalized economy.

A word about the heavy cost of expansion in irrigation facilities. Development costs of new major irrigation are almost Rs. 1.0 million per hectare and the annual Operation and Management cost is Rs. 2,500 per hectare. To make this economically viable there should be at least 100,000 - 150,000 net profits per hectare annually. "The scope of increasing storage for future growth in demand is very limited and prohibitively expensive," says the Water Vision-2025. "Transfer of water from surplus to deficit areas is expensive and social and environmental costs are high."

If enhancement of water storage and transfer of water are both prohibitively expensive, should the vast extent of land under irrigation that cannot be supplied with adequate water for the satisfactory cultivation in both seasons be allowed to languish until they abandon their land and find alternative employment in the non-agricultural sector? The government has the obligation to encourage them to continue in agriculture and at the same time find ways of providing them other sources of income and employment. The Water Vision says: "The value of small tanks and water bodies for social and environmental balance will be recognized and safeguarded."

When the Irrigation Management Division of the Ministry of the then Lands and Lands Development was formed nearly 20 years back it was observed "The period of irrigation construction is over and the period of irrigation management has dawned." Not much attention is paid to this proposition. For example, it appears that, when proposals for Deduru Oya Development are formulated, this observation has been overlooked. I would very much like to see this statement contested and proved otherwise.

Vision-2010

The "Vision-2010 - Sri Lanka", published in 2001 by the National Planning Department of the Ministry of Finance and Planning says:

"Agricultural employment which is presently 38% of total employment, is expected to fall to 15% by 2010, a share comparable to that of upper-middle income countries."

The Vision 2010 however expects an expansion in area cultivated over time. The Vision-2010 says:

"The next step is a shift from subsistence to wealth creating, high-value, market driven crops, with the objective of bringing under cultivation large area of uncultivated land each year for next ten years."

Even though a lesser number of people in agriculture cultivating a larger extent of land means larger land parcels, the Vision 2010 says:

"The five high potential regions ...... currently produce 49 per cent of national paddy requirements, and are expected to produce about 70 per cent in five years, meeting the entire needs of the population in 2025.

The main program is designed to demonstrate that full time, irrigated, smallholder farming is viable by achieving yield levels of 6.0 tons per hectare and making paddy farming profitable."

Even though the term self-sufficiency is not used, "meeting the entire needs of the population in 2025" apparently means self-sufficiency.

Despite minor contradictions, the basic assumptions of the two Visions appear to be in harmony. A drastic reduction in the rural population is expected. Modern methods of production, catering to more sophisticated market, backed by new technology, would be adopted by the remaining agricultural community and they will attain a higher standard of living.

Land use policy

The final draft of the "National Land Use Policy of Sri Lanka" prepared by the Land Use Policy Planning Division of the Ministry of Lands is now available after 10 years of preparation. It is most likely that the Cabinet will approve it. Moving the state away from a proprietary to a managerial/facilitator role in land management leading to a healthy land market has been described as a prime objective of the Land Policy.

This policy may help the people tied to the land by regulations to move away from the land. Although the prevailing policy may seek to protect a land-owning peasantry, it may also be responsible for preventing the allottees from getting a fair price for their land and it may have prevented the developing of land in many instances.

"The poor performers will be the first to exit" says the World Bank study on Non-Plantation Crops Sector. Mr. Sunil Bastian sees a recipe for disaster in this transition but agrees that such a transition could be managed peacefully. The Water Vision-2025 clearly states that crisis situations (related to water resources) can be expected if the factors that influence the march to the Vision are not properly managed. Such foresighted management may not be easily accomplished.

It has taken more than 15 years to draft a Land Use Policy for Sri Lanka (drafting commenced nearly 5 years after the need was pointed out) and how long it will take for the Cabinet to accept it as national policy and thereafter to ensure that a strategy is developed to implement the policy is not predictable.

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