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by Lynn Ockersz

With one phase of the allied military involvement in Iraq coming to a close, with the announced cessation of offensive combat operations, prospects seem to be brighter for a resumption of efforts by India and Pakistan to reduce tensions in bilateral relations.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's recent reported reiteration of his country's readiness to enter into a renewed dialogue with India, aimed at normalizing Indo-Pakistani relations, in response to an offer a month ago, by Indian Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee to enter into a dialogue of this kind with Pakistan in a positive reaction to repeated urgings by the latter for a resumption of normalization talks, provides the background to this assessment.

Brightening the prospects of a renewed Indo-Pakistani dialogue, is the "unprecedented" gesture by Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali to phone Premier Vajpayee with the request that the latter visits Pakistan for the purpose of resuming talks. Around the same time Vajpayee had announced the resumption of India's diplomatic and air links with Pakistan.

It would be tempting to see a causal link between developments in Iraq, centering around a military victory in that country for the allies and an upcoming visit to the South Asian region of US Deputy State Secretary Richard Armitage, and the emerging thaw in Indo-Pakistani ties, but the latter is also possibly an outcome of independent assessments of the ground situation of the Indian subcontinent made by the regional rivals.

For instance, although India and Pakistan were allies of the US and Britain in their confrontation with Iraq, this did not prevent Indo-Pakistani relations deteriorating amid worsening tensions in Jammu and Kashmir. It seems, therefore, that the Indian gesture of accepting Pakistan's hand of friendship is an outcome of India viewing developments in Kashmir from a fresh perspective. In recent months, the situation in Kashmir has emerged as an important determinant of the state of Indo-Pakistani relations.

While only time will prove or disprove these assumptions, the decision by India and Pakistan to attempt afresh to mend-fences could have a positive impact on the SAARC process. As far as the peoples of South Asia are concerned this is the most important dimension in emerging efforts by India and Pakistan to accommodate each other. Over the past couple of years or so, the SAARC process has almost laboured to a halt. The last Heads of State Summit, for instance, scheduled to have been held in Islamabad, never materialized.

One of the most positive outcomes of improved Indo-Pakistani ties could be a resumption of the impeded SAARC process. Hopefully this issue would be taken up by SAARC political leaders, sooner rather than later, on account of the close relation between a stepped-up SAARC process and economic, growth prospects in South Asia. Poverty alleviation, for instance, in South Asia could depend considerably on whether the SAARC Seven could make a concerted effort in the direction of poverty reduction. Development in other areas too depends on a stepped-up, regional cooperative strategy.

All this crucially depends on SAARC unity.

SAARC leaders should also explore the possibility of insulating the SAARC process from the vicissitudes of regional inter-state politics. Clearly, SAARC suffered as a result of such exposure over the past couple of years. This is borne by the impact Indo-Pakistani ties have had on the SAARC process.

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