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ICT based Emergency Warning System

by Priyantha K. Weerabahu

The 26th of December 2004 was etched in our history as one of the worst days in the living memory due to the enormous devastation the Tsunami caused. The entire world was stunned by the magnitude of the disaster, which killed over 150,000 people and displaced millions within few hours.

Even though there have been many other disasters which resulted in higher number of deaths, this disaster has affected the world community to the very core due to the nature it happened and the wide publicity it received through news media.

This is quite evident in the way people and governments all over the world have come together to help the victims and countries effected in cash and kind. It is truly generous and shows the humane nature of people.

When we look back at the incident, what is most saddening to note is the fact that many of the lives could have been saved if there was an established system of warning people using the existing technology. The irony is even the countries with more resources than Sri Lanka did not have such systems or was not effectively used.

The earthquake which occurred around 7.00 am west coast of northern Sumatra resulted in the first Tsunami waves hitting the coast line of Ampara in Sri Lanka around 8.30 am. There after the waves continued hitting the coast lines of Sri Lanka at different times till around 10.30 am.

What is evident by this is that for 1.5 hours the Sri Lankans did not have a clear warning of the earthquake near Sumatra and the possible Tsunami. Even after the first Tsunami waves hit the coast line of Ampara for 2 hours the people in other parts of the coast lines were not alerted of similar Tsunami waves.

This is tragic by any standards. Even if we had the so called expensive Tsunami warning system, the result wouldn't have been much different as we did not have a proper emergency warning system.

According to present statistics we have lost over 10,000 lives in Ampara and the rest in other areas within the next two hours. Even before the first 10,000 died there was a warning of a Tsunami posted on the Web at 8.04 am in Sri Lankan time.

The irony is to save 75% of the deaths we did not need to have any expensive Tsunami warning system, but an established emergency warning system would have done the needful. Anyhow now it is too late to repent and the need of the time is to see that at least we will not make the same mistake again.

The next disaster may not be a Tsunami but completely a different disaster in a completely different situation and environment. It could be a cyclone, flood, landslide, forest fire, drought, thunderstorm, earthquake, tsunami, terrorist act or what not.

According to experts we did not have a Tsunami warning system as it was not a priority as Sri Lanka was not considered highly vulnerable to a Tsunami threat as well as installing and maintaining such a system is costly.

The costs are in the range of US$ 250,000 for a "Tsunameter" with a maintenance cost of US$ 50,000 per annum. What would be most appropriate is a world body such as the United Nations (UN) to fund and set up such system all around the world rather than leaving them to individual countries who cannot afford them.

Otherwise the poor countries would be at the mercy of such disasters. Once such disasters occur, the cost of relief efforts to such organizations and richer governments would be many times more.

Today due to wide publicity most of the people are aware of what a Tsunami is and the causes and early warnings which was lacking early.

Such prior knowledge among the general public could have saved many thousand lives. There were many who died while observing the residing sea water level, which was a warning sign of an impending Tsunami.

At the same time there were instances where kids warned their parents with the knowledge acquired in school and saved many lives.

Even though technology is not the solution for everything, definitely the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) can play a major role in mitigating and reducing the human and other costs of such large scale disasters.

With the enormous learning from this incident we could do much better next time. Therefore what is proposed here is how ICT can be of help to make that more systematic and efficient.

Unfortunately whenever such systems are proposed there are many who come out with lame excuses and try to prove why they are not practical. This is not something unique to Sri Lanka and is so in many other countries.

The need of the time is not to be negative, but to provide constructive criticism and offer alternative solutions that will work.

Discard what is not suitable and include improvements. Integrate the workable components to make the whole. What is important is the solution to the problem and not the ownership of the solution. That is the way forward.

The Model for Emergency Warning System

The proposed model for the emergency warning system consists of five important steps. They can be sub divided into many others for the ease of implementation.

How the emergency warning system will work

All citizens must be educated through every possible medium to report any unusual activity observed or disaster to a common telephone number such as 911.

If you cannot, tell someone who can. Even today there are such numbers. But the problem is there are too many emergency numbers. Either each telephone provider has one or each service provider has one. For example to contact police there is one, to contact fire brigade there is one, to contact ambulance there is one etc.

But how many of the citizens remember these various numbers even though they are usually repeating numbers. The best way to verify this is to ask the next ten people you meet what these numbers are.

It will not be surprising to find out that most will not. It is good to have separate numbers but in an emergency many forget even their own. Therefore any call to telephone number 911 originated from any land or mobile connection must be directed to the emergency warning centre.

These calls may be automatically directed to multiple numbers belonging to the emergency warning centre. All these calls do not have to come to the same emergency warning center. There could be many regional centres which will receive the call depending on the locality of originating call.

These unusual activities reported can be anything extraordinary. It could be such as rumbling of the earth, unusual wave patterns, sudden withdrawal of sea water, thunder clouds, falling of unusual objects, hearing unusual sounds, feeling unusual heat or cold, restlessness or unusual movement of animals, etc.

Once we could afford expensive early warning systems such as "Tsunameters" the warnings can be automatically relayed to this system.

There will be many instances of false reporting. But it is still worth when you consider over 40,000 who paid the supreme sacrifice. False reporting must be dealt with law and it must not be one of the reasons for not using such a system.

Once the call comes in it must be recorded. This information can be stored in a distributed database over the Web by the regional emergency warning centres. What would be most important to record are the area and the description of the incident.

If possible the identity and any contact information can be obtained. Even though the identity and the contact information would be important to verify the authenticity of the incident, in an emergency those who take the time to report may be on the run.

Even if they give such information the verification may not be possible in such a situation and that time could be used for more urgent action. The date and time and the originating telephone number which may not be from the exact area of the incident can be automatically recorded.

Those who listen and record the information must be highly trained individuals with good educational background to clearly record the incident and classify for further action. As part of the classification process the incident can be matched with possible dangers or disasters in the knowledgebase.

The most difficult task is the verification of the threat posed by the incident. It is a vital step prior to issuing a warning. To make the whole system effective the common sense approach must be followed.

For example when a Tsunami hits the coastline of one part of the country the warning can be automated to inform the other coastal areas.

When the incident does not give a clear threat they can be directed to experts in classified areas for further advice prior to issuing warnings. We have to think out of the box and be innovative to make the system most effective in this stage.

Finally when it is clear that a warning is essential it must be automatically conveyed through all possible communication medium.

The television, radio, and police stations, armed forces, hospitals, fire brigade and ambulance services, disaster management agencies, and all places where the public gather through previously setup broadcasting systems.

This first level of warning must be backed up by secondary level warnings through more simple forms such as bells, sirens, and even shouting and signaling to each other in a drilled fashion.

Implementation strategy

Step 1: Setup a common telephone number for the emergency warning system.

Ideally this could be the internationally known number 911 used in distress. This telephone number can be reserved by all fixed and mobile telephone companies. Any call which comes through their system must be redirected to the emergency warning center.

Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (TRC) and the fixed and mobile telephone companies can do this immediately.

Step 2: Register the domain name 911.lk for the emergency warning system.

This domain name can be used to create the web based online recording system, which would enable the emergency warning system to be maintained from anywhere.

This web site could be used much more extensively once the Internet penetration level in the country is high. But initially this would be used as the interface to record the incidents in the emergency warning system.

.LK domain registrar can do the registration immediately.

Step 3: Create and host the 911.lk web site mirrored at regional emergency warning centres. They all can use a distributed database system to hold the reported incidents and the knowledgebase.

Necessary security controls must be built into the system to make it robust and available.

Internet Service Providers (ISP) in Sri Lanka can do this immediately.

Step 4: Build intelligence into the system to identify possible causes based on the reported incidents and automate much as possible actions. This must be a continuous process and would take long time to mature. But the system must be used from day one with the minimum capabilities.

Agencies such as ICT Agency can initiate actions to build the system with the expertise from all conceivable places. This cannot be done by just one organization. Input from all must be incorporated. The ideas gathered from Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation (TAFREN) could be a great source. Start immediately.

A later article will explain how this can be done effectively from the ICT perspective.

Outcome of this step is vital to the final broadcast of the warning. No responsible organization will broadcast the warning unless some one takes the responsibility.

Therefore the government of Sri Lanka must give the necessary authority to the system to issue the warning after going through the verifying process, which must be automated to the maximum possible. Bureaucracy or lethargy cannot save lives.

Step 5: Establish an automated emergency warning methodology with all telephone, electronic news media, and responsible organizations.

* Each telephone network can broadcast a warning to all subscribers.

* Each mobile operator can send SMS alert to subscribers.

* Each radio and television channel can broadcast a warning.

* Police and armed forces can go out with sirens and warnings.

* Pre-established broadcasting systems in all public places can be activated.

* All emergency services can be alerted.

* Bells in religious institutions can be sounded.

* Any other indigenous warning systems.

This warning system must be intelligent enough to initiate the warning in the appropriate locality other than a large scale disaster which has repercussions all over the country.

Step 6: Promote, promote, and promote the intelligent use of the system among the entire spectrum of citizens. We must teach the use of the system in schools, religious institutions, public and private institutions, through printed and electronic news media, and every other conceivable method.

If you have doubts of a system such as this, think of the thousands who lost their lives due lack of such a system. It's still worth the effort as we were fortunate enough to live. Our positive action may save many thousands in the future including ours.

"You can do it if you believe you can." Napoleon Hill

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