Emerging security architecture in South - part 4

by Prof. Gamini Keerawella (Continued from March 14)

The earlier community of interests against international terrorism and the war on terrorism (Operation Enduring Freedom) between South Asian countries and the World Powers was not sustained in the same vigour with subsequent developments especially after the address of President Bush to the UN General Assembly in September 2002. When the United States commenced its attack on Iraq on March 2003 without a US Security Council Resolution the earlier consensus and enthusiasm over need for a collective action against international is dissipating rapidly. It is also very interesting to observe the implications of US military adventure, if not debacle, in Iraq on South Asian security environment. However it is still too early to make any concrete observations.

Uni-polar hegemony

The most conspicuous development in the South Asian security architecture in the last decade has been the gradual transformation of it from bi-polar conflict pattern to a uni-polar system based on the hegemony of India. During the most of the Cold War phase the conflict relationship between India and Pakistan as the main protagonists set the basic pattern of bi-polar conflict formation in South Asia though the power capabilities of both States remained asymmetrical. This bi-polar formation is being changed not because that both powers resolved their strategic rivalry, instead, India emerged as the predominant power while Pakistan could not maintain bi-polar structure in the face of its internal crisis. This change in the power relationship can be attributed to a number of factors and developments.

...Firstly the continued economic growth witnessed by India in the last decade made it the new growth center in Asia. Moving away from the so-called 'Hindu rate of growth' of 3.5 percent a year, India was able to accelerate its GDP growth rate of over 6 percent at the beginning of 1990s and maintained it continuously thereafter. This impressive growth rate performance of India ranked it among the top six in the world growth league, along with China, Korea, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam. As Subramaniam Swami pointed out, "much of this has been due to macroeconomic policy changes since 1991 but also due in part to fortuitous international circumstances, and to global environment." A process of far-reaching macroeconomic reforms to dismantle 'the licence/control Raj' was set in motion under the Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in 1991 and it was continued uninterruptedly under different administrations since then. Further the Indian economy was able to weather the worst financial crisis faced by many east and southeast Asian economies without much disruption.

During the last ten year period, Indian advances in the knowledge industry linked with the IT revolution in an information age are also very impressive. The impact of India's lead on 'colonising the cyberspace' is reverberated in the Silicon Valley too. The US-based Business Week observed that Indian growth is only just starting but the country's brainpower is already reshaping Corporate America. It further remarked that "quietly but with breathtaking speed, India and its millions of world class engineering, business and medical graduates are becoming enmeshed in America's New Economy in ways most of us barely imagine.....This techno take-off is wonderful for India-but terrifying for many Americans. In fact India's emergence is fast turning into the latest Rorschach test on globalisation. Many see India's digital workers as bearers of new prosperity to a deserving nation and vital partners of Corporate America." The maintenance of the impressive growth rate and advances in knowledge industry adds value to the potential power attributes that India naturally possesses. It has the second largest population, the fourth largest military establishment and seventh largest territory in the world.

If India maintains the present growth rate, as Business Week observes, "its huge population could prove an asset. By 2020, 47% of Indians will be between 15 and 59 compared 35% now. The working-age populations of the US and China are projected to shrink. So India is destined to have the world's largest population of workers and consumers. That's big reason why Goldman, Sachs & Co. thinks India will be able to sustain 7.5% annual growth after 2005". India's potential as emerging economic power is now recognised by other economic powers too. India's acceptance to join ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996 came in this context. It indicated the recognition of India's economic potential as well as its turn towards the East in its economic policies and to link up with the East Asian growth.

Secondly India is steadily moving from a 'weak state' to 'strong state'. This positive development can be attributed to its robust that chaotic democratic process and to the relative depth the institutional basis of the state. It is true that India is a bundle of contradictions put together, as India's first Prime Minister Nehru remarked. The democratic political order and its ability to accommodate diverse forces cushioned the Indian state from these contradictions and enhanced its resilience. In the past fifty years, India achieved a remarkable success in the post-colonial institution building process. At independence, India inherited a host of institutions from British India. Decades of democracy successfully remodelled these institutions to suit the post-colonial conditions. The Indian Constitutions played a key role in this regard. It is a unique mix of federal and unitary features. It helped to weather a numerous secessionist challenges faced by the state with ethno-political mobilisation and to keep the Indian State in tact. The secular Constitution provided a strong ideology for the post-colonial state capable of keeping the multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-linguistic Indian polity together. It was the ideology of the state that further established its legitimacy in the Indian polity.

As a result India was able to achieve comparatively a high degree of political stability and internal cohesion by accepting and sustaining diversity. In the light of ethnic diversity and in the face of numerous trends in ethno-political mobilisations, there is no serious danger of disintegration or implosion of Indian state. The BJP came to power with a avowed Hinduthwa platform. However once in power they were compelled to come to the grips with realities of the Indian polity and it did not change the fundamental secular character of the Indian state. After decades of chaotic and robust democracy, India stood the test of democracy in a plural Third World society fairly successfully.

The secular constitution and democratic process further contributed to define the nature and the role of the state institutions. The most important feature in the functional democracy, which has at times condoned corruption in politics and business, is the relative depth and legitimacy of the institutions. In this regard, the role played by the Indian Supreme Court the Election Commission and Indian press as the guardians of the Constitution and democracy in the last five decades is commendable. Referring to the role played by the Indian Election Commission, the Economist observed, "(A) long with free press and an activist Supreme Court, the commission is one of a number of stubbornly independent unelected institutions that help to protect Indian democracy from the elected politicians." Decades of democracy, the success in post-colonial political and administrative institution-building process and the investment in human capital paid-off India well. The most significant outcome perhaps is India's march, slowly but steadily, from a weak state to a strong state.

Thirdly, the gradual shift of the South Asian strategic landscape from asymmetric bi-polarity to a uni-polarity is also, in part, a result of Pakistan's inability to maintain bipolarity vis-a-vis India. The continuous crisis in Pakistan undermined its capacity as viable regional pole of power. The socially and politically constructed Indo-Pakistan rivalry had provided the basis for a bi-polar conflict relationship in South Asia while other small states did not have power or capacity to modify it. This rivalry still continues with a varying degree of intensity but Pakistan capability as the number two in South Asia to maintain bipolarity is increasingly diminishing. The nuclear parity of Pakistan with India bestowed Pakistan some sense of equality with India.

However in view of continuing multi-faceted social and political crisis in Pakistan just the nuclear parity does not make it a credible pole of power. As pointed out elsewhere the crisis in Afghanistan enhanced the strategic value of Pakistan and the significance of its Islamic identity.

Nevertheless, its involvement contributed heavily to deepen the internal crisis and it was ultimately caught up in a situation where it was compelled to fight to get rid of militant Islamic elements once it fostered. The socio-political crisis in Pakistan is a much more deep-rooted one; it is not simply a consequence of its involvement in the Afghan crisis. After the Partition in 1947 Pakistan inherited the same legacy of legislative and judicial institutions from the British Raj as in the case of India. Pakistan failed to develop strong post-colonial political institutions other than the military to provide legitimacy to the Pakistan state. The assassination of Liaqat Ali Khan in 1951 prepared the ground for intense in-fighting and political instability. The prominent political role played by the military deprived Pakistan from developing healthy democratic political institutions. The intermittent periods of military rule, starting from 1958-62 under Ayub Khan, 1969-72, under Yahya Khan, 1977-88, under Zia Ul Haq and again from 1999 under Musharraff, set the pattern of post-independent political history of Pakistan.

The faltered process of democracy ensured the continuation of the dominance of the interlinked landlords-big business and military triad in the governance of Pakistan. W. Maley summarised the malady in the practice of democracy in the following words: (F)aced with the threat of military intervention in politics, civilian politicians all too often concentrated on using public office as positional good to extract resources from the wider society while they could - something that in turn fuelled popular cynicism and discontent, and created a constituency for the message of purification that Taliban-like forces set out to articulate in the 1990s". The Islamic ideology is often used to rationalise the narrow political interests of the ruling elites at the expense of the effective participation of the general masses in the democratic political process. Therefore the present predicament of Pakistan is an outcome of a structural crisis, brewed over a period of time in the face of the failure of the political leadership to guide post-colonial state-formation and national integration process. Barry Buzan writes that "Pakistan's decline is the making of its elites and leadership over the years. Pakistan provides a model for the 'tragic misuse of Islamic ideology to create a bogus state structure' that lacks legitimacy and remains authoritarian and unresponsible to provincial needs". In the light of the deepening internal crisis, Pakistan state is gradually moving towards a failed state from a weak state.

Another factor contributed to change the bi-polar structure is the rapid growth of Indian military power and power projection capability. Pakistan could not keep a pace with the development of Indian military capability. During the period of last one and half decade, India was able to establish its clear lead in both conventional armed forces and also in relation to the on-going Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) warranted by the advances in information technology. Backed by India's continuous economic growth and the lead in civil information technology, the sophistication in military-related IT technology has increased rapidly. The Indian National Satellite (INSAT) system and the Indian Remote Sensing Satellites (IRS) system from the basic of national IT communication infrastructure.

As far as the acquisition of state-of-the-art weapons systems are concerned India's defence relationship with Israel is important. The last two decades witnessed a rapid increase in India's bi-lateral relationship with Israel manifested by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's visit to India in September 2003. It followed the largest-ever arms deal with Israel in February 2004 which included the $1.1bn acquisition of three sophisticated Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) unit mounted on modified Russian IL-76 aircraft, to be delivered in 2005. In addition, in March 2004 India entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Britain for $1.4bn purchase of 66 Hawk advance jet aircraft. However Russia still continues to be India's largest military supplier: the $1.5bn deal for the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and its complement of combat aircraft was signed in January 2004. As a result of all these developments especially advanced in IT related military technology, missile delivery systems and wider naval reach and punch, India became unmatched military power in South Asia.

Finally another two factors facilitated the process of structural shift from asymmetrical bi-polarity to uni-polar hegemonic security architecture. Firstly in view of the enhanced power capabilities of India and changes in intra-regional power relations, the external powers have now come forward to recognise the hegemonic position of India in South Asia. This change of perceptions on the part of the United States was clearly evident during the visit of President Bill Clinton to New Delhi in March 2000. Secondly the approach of other South Asian States except Pakistan had been also changed along with these developments. The Gujral doctrine contributed heavily to change the earlier atmosphere prevailed between India and its smaller neighbours. Many are now ready to accept India's leadership role in South Asia. This change of attitudes is clearly visible in Sri Lanka's relations with India. It is compelled to come to the grips with geo-political realities in South Asia and realise the advantages of being good neighbour policy with India.

(Concluded)