Lower majority, but sufficient mandate to govern:

Historic straight third term for Blair

TONY Blair won a historic straight third term as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on his 52nd birthday yesterday, but with a lower majority. Congratulatory messages poured in from world leaders as his victory was confirmed.

Protests over his integrity and support for the U.S.-led Iraq war, combined with disillusionment after eight years under Labour, prompted many voters to switch allegiance - cutting Blair's majority to between 60 and 80 seats from 161 before.

By historical standards, it is a respectable majority in the 646-seat Parliament and a sufficient mandate to govern. Friday's return to Number 10, Downing Street, Prime Minister's London home and office was relatively sombre for Blair and a stark contrast to the euphoric scenes of 1997 when he swept to power with a landslide as the youngest British leader since the early 19th century.

Blair has only just walked back into No. 10 - but already Britons are asking when he will be out the door.

Despite awarding his Labour party a third term, disillusioned voters at least halved his parliamentary majority, denting his authority when he needs it more than ever.

With powerful finance minister Gordon Brown, 54, hungry for the top job and Blair, 52, saying he will not stand again, the prime minister could turn into a lame duck, analysts said.

Defeat in a planned 2006 referendum on the European Union constitution could trigger the end of the Blair era.

Dogged by speculation about his health - he was treated for heart palpitations last year - and the damage from Iraq, Blair took the unprecedented step last year of saying he would serve a full third term, if elected, but not a fourth. In 2006, Blair has promised a referendum on the EU treaty and must convince a British public overwhelmingly opposed to it.

France could still spare him that fight if it rejects the treaty on May 29 - a move that would likely scupper it. If the British referendum goes ahead, a "No" vote would likely force Blair's departure, analysts said.

Victory in the referendum, too, could provide Blair with a convenient way out of office, having fulfilled his long-stated dream of putting Britain "at the heart of Europe."

Blair's powers of persuasion were once legendary but some in Labour feel the man who was once Labour's greatest electoral asset has cost it votes - for which he may have to pay a price. Blair and Brown, whose rivalry dates back years, united for the campaign, putting the economy at the heart of Labour's bid for re-election. But pundits said the truce would not last.

Meanwhile British opposition Conservative leader Michael Howard said he would resign following electoral defeat by Prime Minister Tony Blair - once the Conservatives decide how and when to elect their new boss.

"As I can't fight it (the next election) I think it is better for me to stand aside," Howard, 63, told party supporters yesterday the day after the nationwide vote. "I intend to stay as leader until the party has had the opportunity to consider whether it considers those (leadership) rules should be changed," he said.

(Reuters)