LTTE bound to fail in any offensive under present leadership: Political Analyst

Government moving in the right direction:

Nadira Gunatilleke

COLOMBO: The LTTE will launch a huge offensive against the Armed Forces, but when one considers the vast experience and knowledge of Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and Army Commander Sarath Fonseka the mission is bound to fail, well-known scholar and political analyst Dayan Jayatillake said.

“The Government has taken the right step today by launching military offensives against the LTTE. All have to support it. The military side of the solution is very successful and we have scored very well. Simultaneously a political solution should be sought to the North and East conflict”, he said addressing a breakfast meeting at the Galadari Hotel, Colombo yesterday.

The event was organised by the Sri Lanka Institute of Directors, an affiliated institution of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.

Jayatilleke said all past leaders like J. R. Jayewardene, R. Premadasa and Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga had plans for the country but all failed due to the recurrence of the conflict. “Ours is not a failure to negotiate but a failure of negotiations. Ranil Wickremesinghe went too far with the ceasefire agreement (CFA). It could have led to the third JVP insurgency,” he said.

Jayatilleke said the LTTE was not interested in a peaceful solution to the conflict.

“If they were interested, they would not have boycotted the Tokyo donor conference. During the CFA what the LTTE did was purely build a civilian militia. They did not allow the Army to go to their areas. The ISGA went far beyond Oslo proposals,” he said.

Jayatilleke said in 2002, Prabhakaran’s main strength was Karuna but today he does not have that strength.

“Organisations like the LTTE has to be fought and militarily defeated. The LTTE could not win a separate State during the past 30 years and could not take back Jaffna. Prabhakaran shrinks from time to time,” he said.

“We have three school of thoughts. They are war only, negotiations only and a combination of military offensives and negotiation (political solution). The first two are wrong and only the last one is correct. The first two schools of thoughts were tried in the past and failed. The solution should be a military and political one.

The Government should talk with those willing to do so. It can negotiate with Karuna, TULF Leader V. Anandasangaree and EPDP leader and Minister Douglas Devananda and find a political solution to the conflict. The LTTE should be isolated. The APRC can also be included, Jayatilleke said.

“This is very simple way of dealing with the problem and it is similar to solving a trade union problem. Negotiate with the ones who are willing to negotiate and the majority accept the solution isolating the minority not willing to negotiate. Today we do not have Dr. Neelan Tiruchelvam, A. Amirthalingam and similar personalities who were killed by the LTTE. Therefore we have to negotiate with the available persons.”

Jayatilleke noted that Karuna did not demand a separate State. He also said if the TNA was in Spain, it would be a banned group.

“The Mahanayaka Theras asked why we take something from the LTTE when we can offer something to the Tamil people. The President in his Independence Day speech said at least we have to accept Anandasangaree and Douglas Devananda. Today we have to push this idea. We have the best chance now with the SLFP, a significant influx from the UNP and the JVP staying away from the Government”, he said.

“What we need now is a set of proposals in the right size. We should bring a set of proposals that can be implemented with a simple majority in Parliament and the President’s powers. It should not require a two third majority because if a referendum is conducted and is defeated, the extremists will gain strength.

Jayatilleke said: “We can start from strengthening the existing Provincial Council system. The solution is not pretty but it is the only solution. Countries like China and South Africa are very good examples. They do not have a federal system but are successfully managed with multicultural ethnic groups living in the country.”

The Corporate Sector should work with the main stream, it should be re-branded, re-profiled and having done that, it can implement things in the cultural and youth front, he said.

Jayatilleke requested the business community not to heed two or three voices representing the whole business community all the time. He also asked them not to support NGOs while staying with the State.

“The corporate sector can generate its own proposals, ideas and market them. Look at the present Cabinet. it is multicultural”, he said.

Questioned if there could be international intervention in the Sri Lankan conflict, he said certain persons and groups want to see another Kosovo in Sri Lanka.

“The CIA kidnap foreign citizens and take them by air to other countries where they are tortured. There were human rights violations during the past and also during the time of former President J. R. Jayawardene. But there are no such accusations against President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

What we have to do now is present the real situation of the country to the world, especially to the west in a language they can easily understand, he said.

Questioned about the possibility of a snap general election, he said no one will give nominations to SLFP dissidents and no one will waste their vote for them.

Jayatilleke a well-known scholar and a reputed political analyst holds a First Class Honours Degree in Political Science.

He also won a Fulbright scholarship from the State University of New York.