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BRITAIN: Interim President Raul Castro will lead Cuba's national day festivities Thursday amid uncertainty over the future of his convalescing brother Fidel, who was last seen in public at last year's event.

In a sign that Fidel Castro, 80, was not ready to make his first public appearance since undergoing surgery last year, Cuban state media said Wednesday Raul would deliver the keynote address at the National Rebellion Day.

Fidel Castro was last seen on July 26, 2006, in Bayamo and Holguin in eastern Cuba to commemorate the assault that he led on the Moncada barracks in the city of Santiago in 1953. The assault was a turning point in the struggle to overthrow dictator Fulgencio Batista He was ousted six years later by an army of bearded guerrillas led by Castro, who took power and never gave it up until last year.

Cuban newspapers said Raul Castro, 76, would lead the 54th anniversary by speaking at an event at the Revolution Square in the eastern city of Camaguey, where 100,000 people are expected.

Cubans had hoped that Fidel Castro would appear at other national commemorations over the past few months, but they were not suprised that he would miss out on yet another event.

"I was expecting that it would be Raul this time," said Jorge Luis Perez, a musician sitting in a bench in a Havana square who was reading the communist daily Granma, headlined "Raul Will Speak Tomorrow."

"I am not surprised. The comandante is fully engaged in his recovery and he will come out when his doctors give him the go-ahead," said Perez.

Fidel Castro officially handed power to his brother Raul, the defense minister, on July 31, 2006 - four days after his gastro-intestinal operation - and has only appeared in photographs and videos since then. In the images, Castro first appeared in pajamas and later in a track suit, not his trademark olive military garb - a sign to many Cubans that the leader has yet to fully recover.

But Fidel Castro has found a new way to make his presence felt as he has voiced his opinion on world affairs through a series of front-page editorials published in Granma since late March.

While the handover of power is officially a temporary one, it is unclear whether Fidel Castro will reclaim the reins of government.

In the meantime, Raul Castro has shied away from cameras and the pulpit cherished by his older brother, carving his own discreet leadership style that contrasts sharply with his charismatic sibling, who has the gift of gab.

Raul Castro has kept the one-party system intact, crushing hopes among Cuban exiles in Miami that the communist government would collapse without the elder sibling at the helm.

The younger Castro also suffered a personal tragedy as his longtime wife, Vilma Espin, whom he met in the heat of the revolution, died last month.

Analysts believe that Raul Castro could open the economy in the only one-party communist state in the Americas, but so far no deep reforms have been undertaken. Shortly after taking over, he called for dialogue with the United States, but the administration of US President George W. Bush responded that this would only be possible if Cuba holds free elections and releases political prisoners.

Cuban dissidents say nothing has changed under Raul Castro and that repression has even increased while the island remains in "political limbo."

London, Thursday AFP