LTTE loses both skill and will

Manjula Fernando

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Prof Rohan Gunaratna, Head of International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore, in an interview with the Daily News opines why the Army ucceeded and the LTTE failed.

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How do you assess the present mentality and the moral of the LTTE, its leadership and their strength as of today?

For a guerilla and a terrorist organization to fight, there are two essential things, skill and will, LTTE has lost both the skill and the will to fight the SL military in face to face combat. That is why the LTTE is now focusing on terrorist attacks especially suicide bombings.

The LTTE's numerical strength has dramatically depleted in the past four years.

It is because the military strategy has two stages. In the first stage the military focused on killing and injuring as many LTTE members as possible, that is without taking territory.

The second stage was to dominate the most essential areas and continue to weaken the numerical strength of the LTTE.

This strategy was the most decisive factor in weakening the moral of the LTTE, because they lost the most experienced fighters. Most of them were the middle level leaders and members of the LTTE.

Today the LTTE consists of leaders and the lower rung members. While the leaders personally do not want to participate in front line combat, the lower rung members do not have the skill and the will to fight, that is why the LTTE has been losing almost all the battles in the recent past.

What is behind this outstanding progress?

The military today could achieve so much of progress because Lt. Gen Sarath Fonseka's leadership has guided every single soldier to battle, He was responsible for transforming an army that dominated land into a fighting army.

He guided the soldiers to come into contact with the enemy with the intension of reducing their strength. So there is a significant change in the military strategy.

In parallel, the Sri Lankan Navy interdicted and destroyed four ships of the LTTE carrying weapons, that included artillery and mortars.

As a result the LTTE land forces could not replenish their material losses and usage, that is artillery shells and mortar shells that were expended in combat could not be replaced because the ships carrying new stocks were destroyed by the Navy.

So the close coordination between the Army and the Navy as well as the Air Force taking important targets shifted the battle in favour of the Government.

The difference between victory and defeat in any campaign is leadership. All the three commanders were highly experienced hardworking and dedicated.

LTTE was once described by you as a 'multinational organization with an intense international network of funding and other commercial operations'. How would you describe it now?

Although 'LTTE-Sri Lanka' has suffered very significantly, the LTTE-Global remains a very capable and active organization. The same effort the Government has taken militarily defeat the LTTE needs to be taken by the Sri Lankan Foreign Service both in terms of thinking good strategy, training resources and guidance to weaken the LTTE's international network.

Lakshman Kadirgamar, the late Foreign Minister and a Tamil politician, worked very closely with Western law enforcement and intelligence services to support the prosecution of LTTE activists overseas and disrupt their operations.

He was a powerful voice in the international media particularly in the West. It is essential that every diplomat dedicates at least quarter of his time to advance Sri Lanka's national security and the foreign policy interests by weakening the LTTE network.

But the LTTE suffered heavy setbacks in the international front following the death of Anton Balasingham.

It was a setback but since then the LTTE has adapted to that loss. They have compensated that loss through their top leaders active internationally. The LTTE is doing their best to lobby the appointment of their international head KP to that post. So far they have not been successful but they have not given up the effort.

LTTE was known to be a trendsetter, they introduced the concept of human bomb to the world, etc. They were providing consultancy services to other terror outfits. Despite fatal setbacks in the local scene do they still maintain this international image?

LTTE is a very revengeful organization. When India started to fight the LTTE it provided the training and technology to a number of extremist groups in Tamil Nadu and number of terrorist and guerilla groups in the North and North East of India.

Similarly when the Pakistani military started to assist the Sri Lankan military the LTTE provided their suicide technology to at least one Pakistani terrorist group.

LTTE suicide technology has been emulated by terrorist groups worldwide including Al Qaeda. The USS Cole bombing in Yemen in October 2000, was a copy cat of LTTE suicide attack on Abheeta.

LTTE still maintains links with so many other seperatist and terrorist groups such as IRA, PKK and ETA.

What would you term as the most crucial factor behind the success of militaty operations against the LTTE and its downfall?

Before Gotabhaya Rajapakse was appointed, Army, Navy, Air Force, Police intelligence services and other agencies of Government lacked coordination. For military success the different arms of Government must coordinate and collaborate to lock and engage the enemy on all its fronts.

As the LTTE is a dynamic group, constantly changing, beating the LTTE required a very solid understanding and a quick response capability. Under Secretary Rajapakse's directions the Service Commanders and the heads of other Agencies, including the police and the Intelligence Chiefs worked very closely. His personal leadership style was not only to direct but is known to support.

This coordination and collaboration not only helped weaken the LTTE in the North and The East but also to break the rich LTTE support network in Colombo and elsewhere in the South.

After every attack in Colombo the Government arrested the facilitators and the supporters that provided intelligence, finance and housing to the attack teams. Finally multi agency collaboration between the military law enforcement, intelligence services led to the strangling of the LTTE in the south, reducing their ability to operate effectively especially in Colombo.

There were newspaper reports about a move to name head of their international network KP(Kumaran Pathmanadan) as the Chief Negotiator. Is this true, if so what is the motive?

The LTTE has consulted with the Norwegian Government to appoint Tharmalingam Shanmugam Kumaran alias Kumaran Pathmanadan who headed the financial, procurement and shipping network as its International Negotiator. This was a very cunning move by Prabhakaran to deceive the international community, especially the Norwegians.

KP is wanted by interpol and there is a red notice out for him. The LTTE wanted the Norwegians to help the organization by lobbying foreign Governments to retract their legal position on KP's involvement in terrorism.

KP is one of the most creative terrorist leaders who has sustained the supplies to the LTTE since 1984, for 25 years. He lives in Thailand and he is married to a Thai wife and continues to manage the remaining LTTE ships, procure supplies and provide guidance to the financial network.

What is the current strength of the LTTE's international procurement arm?

LTTE used to raise between 3-4 million US $ a month but after the proscription of TRO in 2007 by the US, the LTTE has suffered internationally. US, Europe and Australia has worked with the number of other countries to develop intelligence on LTTE funding procurement and shipping, partially paralizing, these critical components, feeding the LTTE organization in Sri Lanka.

Today most of the LTTE funds are raised in Canada and Europe but their procurement is in East Asia. LTTE has been buying weapons from a number of east Asian countries including from NORINCO in China. LTTE strategy is to artificially create a humanitarian crisis and pressurize the Sri Lankan military to stop its advance into Puthukudiyiruppu area, the last bastion. Prabhakaran was instrumental in taking 100,000 innocent Tamil civilians as hostage.

However, the international community has failed to understand that the crisis has been created by the LTTE. It is essential for the Sri Lankan Government to give a voice to those civilians who have escaped from the brutal grip of the LTTE.

What are the chances of a resurgence, if the LTTE is completely wiped out from Sri Lanka?

Possibility of a resurgence of the LTTE depends only on one factor: The Government must make Tamils feel that they have the same rights and privileges of Sinhalese and the Muslims.

The Government must commence a process of reconciliation with those Tamils and offer an amnesty and reintegrate LTTE surrendees. Similarly Government must develop the North and the East and build a super-highway between Jaffna and Colombo.

Government must develop North and East to an extent where the Tamils who have been indoctrinated by the LTTE for more than two decades will feel Sri Lanka as their home. In parallel with the military process, President Rajapaksa must commence a political process.

In this conflict Muslims have suffered as much as Sinhalese and Tamils. However, if we are to remain a united Sri Lanka we must identify ourselves as Sri Lankans. We must think and act as Sri Lankans. To forge such an identity, there must be a visionary leadership.

Picture by Ruwan de Silva