It was a headline grabber when 60 percent of a sample of over 1,000 claimed the Aragalaya – 2022 anti-government protests that almost culminated into anarchy – was a failure. Only 11 percent think the Aragalaya was a success. The balance of 29 percent cannot decide if anything was achieved by Aragalaya or not.
This was found by Verité Research (Pvt) Limited – a leading research institute. The magnitude of the surprise generated by this survey results can be gauged by the fact that the results made it to the front page of almost every English newspaper.
Did Aragalaya achieve its objectives?
As the Aragalaya continued over the months, so did the list of demands. In time, the protesters not only wanted the Rajapaksas out but the entire Parliament of 255 MPs, notwithstanding if in the Government or the Opposition. Today, almost every parliamentarian stands discredited in the eyes of the Aragalaya activists.
The SLPP factions and their alliances have distanced themselves from Mahinda Rajapaksa – who was their leader. Without Mahinda Rajapaksa, they are now wandering aimlessly in the political wilderness as they are unable to fill the vacuum created by Mahinda Rajapaksa’s absence. The recent call for unity from all Opposition factions by Professor GL Pieris is very telling.
Many of these factions are hoping to be accommodated by the SJB. Yet, whether this will be the panacea to the leaderless SLPP factions is questionable.
SJB’s own future does not seem to be on solid ground. Usually, a Government’s unpopularity converts into the main opposition’s popularity. This has not happened to SJB. Even minority parties as led by CV Wigneswaran grumble that it is not possible to align with the SJB when their stance on crucial debates such as the 13 Amendment to the Constitution is unknown.
Added to this thin sheet of ice is also the disgruntles of the voters. In 2015, voters were promised good governance but did not get it. In 2019, discipline and economic prosperity were pledged. This was not delivered. When the Yahapalana Government failed, the voters had an alternative to base their hopes on. However, when the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Government flunked, the voters found themselves to be utterly disillusioned and without a discernible alternative.
As things stand, many of the disgusted voters are refusing to go to the polling booth in the event of an election. General Elections are scheduled for 2024. A lot can happen in the meantime. We may find the situation has changed dramatically by then and voters itching to exercise their franchise. However, as of right now, most voters are uninterested in elections and the next elections may see a very poor turnout at the polling stations.
If this disinterest continues by the time of the next elections, none of our political parties or politicians will get a clear mandate. They will thus have to bed with rival factions. This will get them a seat in Parliament but most probably not much of a voice. This clipping of politicians’ wings is the closest to getting rid of all 255 parliamentarians.
The Aragalaya precipitated the breakdown of the supply chains. This instigated anti-government protests. The original demand was to redress the short supplies and end the hardships caused by it. This has been achieved though the economy is not yet fully stabilized. Nevertheless, there is a sense of pre-pandemic normalcy in our country again.
Does the Survey Give a Complete Picture?
Given that Aragalaya had achieved its task list, one would think that more would reflect positively on that struggle and its achievements. Yet, according to Verité results, this is not the case. This brings forth the question as to what is it that the anti-government protesters really wanted to achieve.
According to the Verité survey, 51 percent of the respondents feel that corrupt and bad governance needs to be fixed in order to rebuild Sri Lanka. Another 34 percent want a change in the economic system and 15 percent consider it necessary to give priority to stability over democratic space. When analyzed, none of these three expectations are as widely ranging as it initially appears. In fact, all three point in one direction, which is economic stability and growth.
Corruption and bad or absence of policies are two of the main elements holding back our economy. The desire for a change in economic systems is again to attain economic progress. It is unfortunate that this survey has not captured the change this segment envisions wants in the current economic system, especially when the present system is a hybrid of both capitalism and socialism.
Wanting stability before democratic space is an interesting perception. This is especially so when the very platform of Aragalaya was on democratic space. It is considered by those who advocate democracy that the right to protest is a strong component of democracy.
However, for democracy to deliver effectively, two other components need to be in place. The first is social security. If one cannot meet their basic needs as food and housing, the expectations from the political arm become inward – that is, the demand to meet personal needs first. When politicians barter these needs in exchange for political power, the result is not democracy but demagoguery, which is what we basically have in Sri Lanka today.
The second foundation for an effective democracy is a disciplined society. Democracy is in its truest sense not the will of the majority. It is the selection of the best option. Every choice carries an opportunity cost. Therefore, the choice made needs to be an educated one and one that is made for the greater good of society than the needs of the individuals.
This can only be achieved by a disciplined society. Such a society would have corruption at its minimum and clear policies in place that are relevant to both today and tomorrow. These policies are only good as the economic system that is accepted by the people.
Therefore, these three parameters are simply phrases of the same sentence. To have corrupt-free governance with clearly defined policies, we must have a robust economic system that meets a country’s overall aspirations. Such is only possible in a stable environment. Only once these conditions, which are free of corruption, clear policies, a better economic system and stability are achieved, can we really enjoy democracy in its truest sense.
However, the key factor missing in this survey is the assumption that the anti-government protesters were a homogeneous group, all wanting the same thing. Useful information that would give better insight into this survey results would be:
If those who took part in the survey were part of the Aragalaya;
If they did, when did they join;
At the time of joining, what compelled them and the objectives hoped to be achieved;
At the time the Aragalaya ended in August 2022, what was their perception of the movement;
Has that viewpoint changed in the year that has passed since the movement ended?
Many Hues of the Aragalaya
It would have been very useful had the survey established how many of the 60 percent who believe Aragalaya to be a failure were actually part of the movement. Contrary to popular belief, not everyone was on board with the Aragalaya. When studying the life of Aragalaya, a clear metamorphosis of its character can be identified.
Initially, this was a seemingly spontaneous reaction from the middle class, especially the youth in response to the shortages of fuel and electricity. Though gas as well as other imports such as milk powder were also missing from the markets, the real grouse was the fuel shortages and power outages. This affected the netizens. It was they who began to gather on the street corners and junctions, demanding the Government to redress the issue.
They were soon joined by those affected by gas shortages. This was a serious issue for urban dwellers – especially those living in apartments. Cries for milk powder added an emotional dimension for it implied that children were starving.
It is a matter of great contention that the strong medical unions did not take this opportunity to educate mothers on the fallacies surrounding milk powder. The then Government too failed to use this opportunity to push the domestic dairy industry, which is struggling against the imports despite having a superior product.
Initially, this protest movement was quite bohemian – almost carnival in the atmosphere. However, soon a violent undercurrent began to flow within this movement. This first erupted in March 2022, when there was an attempt to enter President Gotabaya’s private residence by force with clubs and other rudimentary weapons. Though within hours the police managed to repel this attempt, the place resembled a war zone afterwards.
Immediately afterwards, this violent arm submerged and only resurfaced on May 9, 2022. During this interval, other anti-government groups joined the protests. This included LTTE ideologists, Islam extremists, Catholics aggrieved for not getting the kind of justice they wanted for the Easter Attack and the Muslim community who was affronted by the cremation-only rule for those who died of the COVID-19 virus. Into this fray came the LGBTQ advocates as well as the Government’s political opponents.
President Gotabaya, for reasons that baffle many, was determined to protect the rights of the anti-government protesters. The protests were directly hampering the economy which was at its gasping stages. In the month of April, the struggling tourism sector took another nosedive as arrivals fell by almost 50 percent to what it was a month ago. As the law enforcement authorities were thus inactive, other nefarious elements as narcotic peddlers and sex workers began to mingle with this movement.
Until May 9, the dangers that were brewing were hidden by the presence of artists and other popular figures as cricketers. This became the place to mark the presence. Yet, not everyone was taken by the growing vulgarism and many wanted the protests stopped to give a chance to the economy.
After May 9, there was a discernible change in character. The colourful, boisterous gathering was replaced by black plastic banners and the morose presence of overaged university undergraduates. The whole place, which was filled with music and free food became deserted with only a handful giving endless lectures that no one really cared to listen to. In June and July 9, the atmosphere again turned aggressive. On July 9, the situation became so violent that President Gotabaya and his wife narrowly escaped the angry mob.
It may have been the main demand of Aragalaya to send President Gotabaya home. However, the manner this was achieved was a matter of grave concern to many. This set a precedent to oust democratically elected governments by an angry mob at any time in the future. Consequently, future governments will have to tread very carefully and have the Armed Forces on good terms to avoid a repetition of such a misadventure. This is thus a severe blow to democracy.
The demography that arrived on the Galle Face grounds in March 2022 was decidedly not the one the Police eventually cleared out in August 2022. In effect, the Aragalaya was hijacked halfway from the original protesters. This is why, it is important to understand if those who took part in the survey were part of the Aragalaya and if so, at which point they joined the movement. If the survey had this crucial detail, the survey results would have been very strong.
Shivanthi Ranasinghe
