The lead-up to the Presidential Election (PE), expected in late September or early October this year, is steadily gathering pace as the deadline for the declaration of the date of the poll by the Election Commission (EC) approaches and political parties experience a dynamic never seen before in the country’s most important election.
Since 1982, Sri Lanka has seen eight PEs and elected six Presidents, while two others, D.B. Wijetunge and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe assumed office to complete the terms of their predecessors. In President Wijetunge’s case, his predecessor Ranasinghe Premadasa was assassinated in May 1993, while in President Wickremesinghe’s case, his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned. The election in 2024 will be the ninth PE in the country.
In all of the preceding elections, a common feature was a contest between two major contenders. Almost always these political rivals were from alliances led by the opposite ends of the political spectrum, the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
Even in 2015, when Maithripala Sirisena, long-term General Secretary of the SLFP contested under the Swan symbol, he was supported by the UNP while the SLFP endorsed former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In 2019, when the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) fielded Gotabaya Rajapaksa, it had the tacit support of the SLFP.
The political landscape of the country has changed radically since then. The UNP and the SLFP are no longer the all-encompassing political parties they once were. This is despite the UNP, being routed at the 2020 General Election (GE) and reduced to just one National List seat, seeing a resurgence in recent months.
The resurrection of the UNP is largely due to Ranil Wickremesinghe assuming office as President. Since then, the National List seat he occupied has been filled by UNP Chairman Vajira Abeywardena and there have been hurried efforts to rejuvenate the Party at the grassroots level.
However, the UNP remains affected by the depletion of its ranks by the formation of the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) led by Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa. The UNP and the SJB are ideologically similar and the latter was formed only because Wickremesinghe didn’t yield to demands to step down from the party leadership.
The fate of the SLFP is an entirely different saga. It has split into several factions, so much so that it is unclear which group controls the party now. These divisions are mired in legal battles with a mountain of restraining orders piling up. It will not be possible to resolve these issues before the next election.
In a scenario where the SJB has emerged as an alternative to the UNP and the SLPP has emerged as an alternative to the SLFP, these ‘breakaway’ parties are also having their own issues after five years of relative stability. This is what has led to the current uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s political equation.
The SLPP, although still in Government, has seen some of its Parliamentarians becoming ‘independent’, especially after the political upheaval that led to the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in mid-2022. Some of them have gone on to form their own alliances.
Foremost among them were a group led by Dullas Alahapperuma and Prof. G.L. Peiris, the ‘Nidahasa Janatha Sabhawa’ (NJS) and another led by Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara, the ‘Uttara Lanka Sabhagaya’ (ULS). Both have been opposed to the mainstream SLPP.
Lately however, there have been further developments. Weerawansa, Gammanpila and Nanayakkara, have announced the formation of yet another alliance, styled the ‘Sarva Jana Balaya’ which held its first public rally in Nugegoda last week. Entrepreneur Dilith Jayaweera, MP Gevindu Cumaratunga and former Minister Channa Jayasumana have also joined this alliance.
In the group previously led by Alahapperuma, Prof. Peiris and former Minister Nalaka Godahewa have professed their allegiance to the SJB. The fate of the NJS and the stance adopted by Dullas Alahapperuma remains uncertain but is a reflection of the brittle nature of these new-found alliances.
On the other side of the political divide, the SJB is also feeling the tremors of dissent. Its Chairman, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka is at loggerheads with the party’s leadership and his official status in the party is now the subject of legal proceedings. There are also rumours of more defections.
For months, there has been speculation, with specific names being mentioned, that a group of SJB Parliamentarians would join the UNP. To date, only Harin Fernando, Manusha Nanayakkara and Diana Gamage have done so. Gamage had to leave Parliament following a Supreme Court ruling with regard to her citizenship status.
Nevertheless, such speculation continues to thrive. More recently, former Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne has been in the forefront of publicly calling for the UNP and SJB to join forces. This is an absolute necessity if either party is to be in Government, Senaratne has argued strenuously.
Senaratne points out that there are hardly any policy differences between the SJB and UNP whereas there are significant policy differences between the SLPP and the UNP but they are still working together while in Government. This is why the UNP and the SJB should close ranks now, he says.
Against such a backdrop, President Wickremesinghe’s apparent plan is to contest the PE as an ‘independent’ or ‘national’ candidate rather than as a candidate from the UNP. If this eventuates, he is also likely to forego the popular ‘Elephant’ symbol of the UNP in favour of a different ‘neutral’ symbol.
This would enable Parliamentarians to pledge their support to President Wickremesinghe on an individual basis. This will, in effect, remove the need for political parties to endorse him. Even if they do not do so, politicians will still have the opportunity to support him and join his election campaign.
This has become necessary because some political alliances have taken up certain positions regarding endorsing candidates. For example, a breakaway group from the SLPP which consists of MPs who have become ‘independent’ do not wish to be in an alliance with the Rajapaksa-led faction of the party.
Similarly, SJB Parliamentarians who have evinced an interest in supporting President Wickremesinghe also say they do not wish to be seen on the same platform with the Rajapaksa faction of the SLPP. For such politicians, supporting the President individually will be a face-saving exercise.
Last week, there was frenzied speculation about the possibility of extending the term of office of the President by one year without having a referendum. This was due to Article 83(b) of the Constitution. It states that an extension of the term of office beyond six years requires a referendum.
Some legal experts have interpreted this to mean that, if the extension was up to a maximum of six years, a referendum was not required and a two-thirds majority was sufficient. Despite arguments for and against this proposition, there is no indication that President Wickremesinghe wishes to do so.
The President still maintains that his priority is restoring the country’s economy. It is a strategic move by President Wickremesinghe to delay announcing his candidacy as it keeps his rivals guessing. In the meantime, he has instructed selected Parliamentarians and UNP stalwarts to prepare for the polls.
This also places the SLPP in an insecure position. As of now, it is assuming that President Wickremesinghe will eventually declare his candidacy and is hoping to endorse him. In reality, the SLPP does not have a viable alternative if this scenario does not materialise within the next few weeks.
Arguably the only party unaffected by such events is the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) or the National People’s Power (NPP) which has been emerging as a strong contender in the Presidential stakes, even if it is because of the disunity in other political parties. Whether it can sustain this momentum into any election remains to be seen.
JJB leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake was in London, UK, last week addressing a well-attended gathering. The JJB leader has been campaigning in overseas locations such as Canada, France and Australia and has drawn large crowds. However, some question the value of this outreach in a local poll.
A significant factor which emerges in both formal and informal surveys is that a large percentage of the public, probably about a third of all voters, are yet to decide who they would vote for. This is also a reflection of the unique and fluctuating nature of the country’s political environment at this time.
A contest between two main candidates, the hallmark of all past PEs, may not materialise this year. A three-way tussle is a likely scenario raising the possibility that no candidate will poll more than 50 percent of the vote at first count, leading to a count of second preferences.
As the final lap of the PE approaches, all political parties will be trying to target the undecided segment of voters, including first-time and young voters. This can only mean that the next few months will see high-decibel campaigning where slogans, promises, allegations and counter-allegations will be the order of the day.
