This week promises to be one with hectic political activity, heralded by an address to the nation by President Ranil Wickremesinghe that outlined Sri Lanka’s difficult journey since the economic crisis was at its peak almost two years ago. It will also be a catalyst for key political changes.
The main issue that the President is grappling with right now is how he can retain the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentarians as a united entity. The party appears to be in the throes of a factional dispute although ironically, both factions are keen to support President Wickremesinghe.
One group within the SLPP which has been working closely in government with the President has been impressed by his style of governance and his confidence in delegating tasks and responsibilities to them. They see this as a refreshing change to the authoritarian style displayed by SLPP leaders.
They are keen to endorse President Wickremesinghe but are not so keen on the leadership of the SLPP joining hands with them. The SLPP leadership on the other hand has been quite disturbed at this trend and stated that, while they respect and support the President, they are unhappy with this stance.
President Wickremesinghe is keen to obtain the support of as many parliamentarians as possible. At the same time, he has also been careful not to interfere in the internal affairs of the SLPP. For example, he has retained almost the same Cabinet that last functioned under Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
It is understood that President Wickremesinghe has conveyed his desire to retain as much backing as he can from the SLPP, both to that party’s leadership as well as those Ministers, State Ministers and Parliamentarians working with him. He expects the SLPP to resolve this issue in a timely manner.
If the SLPP feels this is a major issue, the main opposition party in Parliament, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) is faced with an even greater threat. That is the imminent crossover of several stalwarts although, at the time of writing, these high-profile defections haven’t materialised as yet.
The political grapevine is buzzing with the news that former Health Minister and the SJB’s Kalutara district MP Rajitha Senaratne is poised for a cross-over. This was after Senaratne took to social media interviews where he said the best course of action for the SJB was to join the government.
That should not be difficult exercise, Senaratne argued, as the SJB was a breakaway faction of the United National Party (UNP) of which President Wickremesinghe is the leader. There are hardly any major differences in the policies and the principles of the SJB and the UNP, he pointed out.
Senaratne also praised President Wickremesinghe for his management of the country’s economy since he took over as President. The former Health Minister was also seen attending a function with the President. Senaratne has always said he is ready to accept the challenge of being Health Minister.
The other high-profile crossover that is expected from the SJB is that of Sarath Fonseka who is incidentally its Chairman. There was a move by the SJB to strip him of all positions in the party but that is now the subject of a legal dispute in court. Fonseka has long been critical of the SJB leadership.
Matters appeared to have come to a head last week. That was when Fonseka launched a scathing attack on the SJB after the party reportedly refused to allocate time for him to speak in Parliament. Fonseka did speak finally and was to point out that it was with time ‘borrowed’ from the government.
In his speech, the former Army Commander who now holds the rank of Field Marshall made thinly veiled references to the government headed by former President Ranasinghe Premadasa handing over weapons to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and how that lead to the deaths of many Policemen.
Fonseka was to point out that positions of power should not be considered a family heirloom to be passed down from one generation to another. The tone and tenor of that speech made it very clear that any form of reconciliation with SJB leader Sajith Premadasa will not be possible in the near future.
These developments have had political observers speculating that the crossover to the government of these two former Ministers will occur shortly. What is of more interest however is whether they will be accompanied by other MPs from the SJB, thus depleting the SJB’s ranks and weakening that party.
This is crucial because SJB and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa is projecting himself as a certain candidate for the Presidential Election. Thanks to the party’s representation in Parliament, Premadasa does command a level of support at the grassroots level which will be crucial in a close contest.
With weeks to go for a Presidential poll, if the SJB leader finds that a significant number of his MPs are joining the government and endorsing President Wickremesinghe, that will deal a bitter blow to Premadasa’s campaign. This is what the SJB leadership has been extremely wary about in past weeks.
With this possibility in mind, the SJB has been holding talks of his own, mostly with SLPP MPs who have declared themselves as ‘independent’. Already those such as G.L. Peiris, Nalaka Godahewa and Dilan Perera have endorsed Premadasa, though they continue to nominally remain in the SLPP.
Among those who have been mentioned as having potential to join the SJB are Dullas Alahapperuma and Dayasiri Jayasekara. Both have become politically estranged from their parent parties, the former from the SLPP and the latter from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) which has its own disputes.
It will be recalled that Premadasa and Alahapperuma have been able to reach political compromises in the past. When Parliament was tasked with electing a President to complete the term of Gotabaya Rajapaksa who resigned, Premadasa withdrew from the contest in favour of Alahapperuma.
It must also be noted that in 2011, when Premadasa spearheaded a leadership contest against Ranil Wickremesinghe in the UNP, his ‘team’ comprised of Karu Jayasuriya (for leader), Premadasa (for deputy leader) and Dayasiri Jayasekara (for national organiser). Only Premadasa won in that contest.
In what might be a likely scenario, if the government does succeed in obtaining the support of some SJB MPs, the SJB may in turn invite several SLPP to join its ranks in a ‘tit for tat’ move. This will enable the SJB to claim that it still has support despite the defections from its own ranks.
The situation in the SLFP meanwhile is vastly different. Two major groups are still fighting for control of the party. Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva was to announce this week that their faction was the legally recognised group of the party. Duminda Dissanayake is this group’s General Secretary.
However, former President Maithripala Sirisena, visiting Kandy this week was to proclaim that his faction still controls the party. Asked about the legal obstacles he would have to confront, Sirisena dismissed these nonchalantly saying that “all such disputes will be resolved at the right time”.
Making an even bolder statement was Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe. He will be contesting the Presidential Election with the ‘hand’ symbol, he said. After he emerges victorious, all the cases against him will be dismissed as he will then enjoy Presidential immunity, Rajapakshe said.
It remains to be seen how the two factions wish to pursue these strategies. Should at least one group decide to contest the presidential elections, there will need to be a formal determination- likely in a Court of law- as to which bloc of the party is legitimate in keeping with the letter of the law.
The other main contender in the Presidential Election stakes, the Jathika Jana Balavegaya, continues its strategy of mobilising support through public rallies with its leader and Presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake as their main attraction. So far, this appears to be paying dividends.
The coming days will see the forming of new political alliances, former political foes closing ranks and maybe even the offering of Cabinet portfolios. Political activity, thus far conducted on a relatively low key will switch to top gear as the final countdown begins towards the 2024 Presidential Election.
